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High Def TV Is In the Eye of the Beholder May 05, 2008
See The Difference
Touchstone Fig1 Sales people love to show consumers how much better their TV shows experience will be on a big, beautiful, expensive HDTV screen. Turns out, though, that as many as 50 percent of consumers receive SD content on their HD set… and they’re happy!

Travel to even the most remote parts of the world. Visit some of the worst hovels. You’ll see a TV set.

People may barely have the necessities of life, but they do have their entertainment (escape) hours.

Television is the common bond across all income levels… all walks of life.

More than 1.150 million households have at least one TV set.

Worldwide TV Households chart Now that the CE manufacturers have convinced us that Tellywood delivers all the entertainment you’ll ever want in the privacy of your own home, they are ready to show you there’s a newer/better/more expensive route. It’s called digital TV that frees up their bandwidth.

A few countries have switched from analog to digital content distribution. For most, it is still a work in progress.

In the U.S., the transition started about 10 years ago, gained momentum last year, and will be completed by February of 2009 …or else.

Never mind the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)’s facts that…
  • It required five years to achieve 10percent household penetration of B&W, another year for 25percent and a total of 9 years for 50percent household penetration
  • It took 14 years for color TV to reach 10percent household penetration, 2 more years for 25percent and 4 more years for 50percent of the households
New Opportunities
Set manufacturers love the switch.

Retailers are happy.

Sales people will spin stories about the pros and cons of plasma vs. LCD sets, the fantastic viewing experiences you will now enjoy, the benefits of your entire family bonding with HighDef content. They’ll explain the “important” differences between 480i/p, 720i/p, 1080i/p, and 1440i/p. Dude…it’s all about the picture.

Real HighDef
Admit it, some things really do look better in HighDef. Especially Carmen Diaz on the Letterman show… and the price!

It’s not like the American home needs a new TV set. According to CTAM (Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing)…
  • 99 percent of the US households have at least one TV set
  • 47 percent have 3 or more
  • 23 percent already have HDTV sets and 22 percent of those households have two or more HDTV sets
Like it or not, next February stations across the country will broadcast only digital signals. As Dean (Will Smith) said… “Conspiracy theorists of the world—unite.”

If you haven’t stumbled into a store already…now may be the time. Just don’t expect a lot of meaningful advice.
Online Research First
Do your own research, such as my wife, who found tons of information to carefully consider, including:
  • Properties of Human Visual Perception
  • Influence of Display Size and Picture Brightness on the Preferred Viewing Distance for HDTV Programs
  • Screen size, resolution, viewing distance variables
Now you have to decide if you:
  • Want to obtain a digital-to-analog converter (taking advantage of your government’s discount coupon)
  • Subscribe to cable or satellite
  • Replace your antenna and get free OTA HD content
  • Act like our son and go the Internet TV Plus route
At the January Consumer Electronics Show (CES), I saw a dizzying array of options.

Panasonic Fig3 Panasonic set the bar extremely high with their gigantic 150-inch Plasma screen.

We could just imagine the wife’s reactions when told we were going to remove a side of the house to install that little baby. It wouldn’t become the centerpiece of a new home theater—or, we’d have to knock out a garage wall and have our own drive-in!

Admit it. The luxurious home theater set-ups look fantastic in the magazines. They also looked expensive.

The home theater market is growing steadily as people spend more and more time watching TV. According to Neilsen:
  • In 1995—1996, families watched TV for 7:15 and… 2005-2006, 8:14 individuals in the same years went from 3:59 to 4:35
Pass the Popcorn
When you’re really serious about your TV and DVD viewing nothing fits the bill like a big, beautiful home theater. Sales and installations are showing excellent growth.

Someone is watching our share!

High End TV Market Fig5 If you decide you’re simply going to buy a converter box, don’t forget the $40 coupon.

Can’t find yours?

This site will show you where to find a store in your area that offers the coupons and the converter boxes.

Getting the boxes delivered and coupons printed is still a “work in progress.” If you’re going to go that route, don’t wait until the last minute.

Everything Entertainment Almost
We’re so beyond that.

For a couple of years, we’ve been trying to figure out how to have a single home entertainment solution without parking a PC in the living room. This is also a “work in progress.”

There still isn’t a non-PC, PC solution available that will appeal to folks who don’t have/don’t want home PCs—or for the technogeek who wants it all with a touch of the remote control button.

Options are on the horizon.

Pipe owners and content amalgamators (not owners) who get there early will have a decided advantage… this is a space that needs to be watched.

Closely!

In my household, we have another faction.

Our son doesn’t exactly believe TV is a government conspiracy… but close. He’s got his notebook computer, a fantastic 24-inch LCD monitor and Internet connectivity. Like most kids, he never knew life without the Internet. His generation doesn’t worry much about privacy because… it’s all out there.

He’s not paranoid like Brill… “The more technology used, the easier it is for them to keep tabs on you.”

Kids Internet-Ready
He just looks at you and says…”Yeah…so?”

Globally notebooks are increasingly being used like his work / communications / entertainment—everything!

Multiple Purposes
Worldwide Notebook Fig6 With the sale of notebook computers surpassing those of desktop systems, people are also finding that the portable devices can be used for more than just work and personal storage. Millions of entertainment files are posted on the Web around the globe delivering the new form and freedom of online entertainment.

All the systems are video ready… game ready… music ready… photo ready… There’s more TV stuff online than OTA!

Just the other night we visited him in his room (you do that with kids…visit them) and watched a Larry, Curly & Moe classic on his system “Slowly I turned…”

Try finding that on one of your gazillion cable channels.

It was damn good, too!!!

Closet TVers
Closet TVers Fig7 He also cheats—just a little. He got a Pinnacle PCTV HD stick to watch “educational” shows between classes.

Your desktop and notebook monitor is already a HDTV screen. A growing number of people are finding the entertainment content they want on the web. If they want OTA content, they can grab it on the go.

He doesn’t use it a lot because of all of his other online choices.

Thank gawd he’s not totally anti-TV… just a closet TVer. He just refused to buy into standard TV logic…you will watch their stuff, on their cable, at their designated times.

The dynamic relationship between broadband access, broadband content, and broadband consumption has changed the TV viewing landscape. Sure makes it tough for networks, stations, and cable providers to charge for eyeballs like the good old days!

Advanced TV Services fig8 According to a recent ComScore report the total landscape is changing:
  • 69 percent of Americans find PCs more entertaining than TVs
  • 47 percent engage more with TV ads online
  • Americans are choosing smaller, not larger TV sets
  • 38 percent of US consumers watch TV shows online
  • 30 percent of cable subscribers would drop cable if shows were available online
Even as online content becomes more compelling, there will still be a lot of big screens sold:
  • 102.5M LCD TVs will be sold this year
  • 105M satellite, cable, IPTV subscribers WW
  • 13.7percent of Americans have HDTV
  • 144 billion DTVs will sell by 201
  • 75 percent of HDTVs sold in 2011 will be LCDs
  • 85 percent of HDTV owners are happy with the picture
  • China exported 39.5M TVs in 2007 with 38.3M sold domestically
  • Flat panel TV sales exceeded $100B in ‘07
Bottom Line…
We’re going to have a lot more video entertainment options from content developers and channel partners. All they have to do is learn how to monetize it.

They just have to remember Brill’s advice, “Well, if they're big and you're small, then you're mobile and they're slow. You're hidden and they're exposed. You only fight battles you know you can win.”

About the author…
Andy Marken is the President of Marken Communications and he has worked in front of, and behind, the TV camera and radio mike. He has written more than 100 articles for the business and trade press. Unable to hold a regular 9-5 job, he has been a marketing and communications consultant for more than 30 years. He was involved in the wild early days of the Internet/web, heyday of the videogame industry and the maturing professional and consumer video industries. His bruising experience includes years with Internet pioneer CERFnet, TCG, and AT&T. He holds the record for working with the Tramiels when they owned Atari—six years—having been hired and fired twice… for some reason, he declined Atari’s third offer. Andy has worked in the video and storage industry with companies such as Panasonic, Philips, Dazzle, Pinnacle Systems, CyberLink, InterVideo, Ulead, ADS Tech and Verbatim. His continuing series of industry insider columns covers the goings on and foibles of the industry, as well as the thrills of victory and the agonies of defeat.

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